The Mountain Ash Advisory Energy Brief
Tuesday, 05 May 2026
Today's notable
Capital-city temperatures — Open-Meteo / BOM. Drives gas (winter heating) + electricity (summer cooling) demand.
Sydney NSW1
21.6°C
Today max 22°C
· Tom 12/20°C
Melbourne VIC1
17.2°C
Today max 17°C
· Tom 10/19°C
Brisbane QLD1
24.9°C
Today max 25°C
· Tom 17/25°C
Adelaide SA1
16.0°C
Today max 16°C
· Tom 12/17°C
Perth SWIS
19.5°C
Today max 21°C
· Tom 12/21°C
East coast gas — pipeline flows (nominations)
| Pipeline | Today (TJ/d) | Nameplate | Utilisation | Δ vs yesterday | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South West Pipeline (VIC) | 111.5 | 515 | 21.6% | ↑ +111.5 | Iona to VTS (TransferIn at VTS Iona Hub) |
| Moomba to Adelaide (MAPS) | 175.2 | 252 | 69.5% | ↑ +56.4 | Moomba Inj. to Pelican Point |
| SWQP (eastbound) | 148.2 | 340 | 43.6% | ↓ -32.2 | Eastbound at Wallumbilla |
| SWQP (westbound) | 243.8 | 512 | 47.6% | ↓ -32.3 | Westbound at Wallumbilla |
| Eastern Gas Pipeline (EGP) | 186.6 | 349 | 53.5% | ↓ -58.1 | Longford to Horsley Park (Sydney) |
| Moomba Sydney Pipeline (MSP) | 126.7 | 565 | 22.4% | ↓ -30.8 | Moomba Inlet to Wilton |
| Roma Brisbane Pipeline (RBP) | 47.8 | 167 | 28.6% | ↓ -19.9 | Wallumbilla to Gibson Island (Brisbane) |
Shipper nominations + forecast for today's gas day, as published by AEMO GBB (matches gbb.aemo.com.au "today" view). Updates several times per day. Settled metered flows lag by 1–2 days and aren't shown.
Gas prices ($/GJ)
STTM Sydney
$8.35
7d avg $8.35
no history yet
STTM Adelaide
$8.30
7d avg $8.30
no history yet
STTM Brisbane
$8.74
7d avg $8.74
no history yet
DWGM (6am)
$8.16
7d avg $8.16
no history yet
Wallumbilla GSH
$8.05
7d avg $8.05
no history yet
Storage and balance
Gas storage — source: AEMO GBB ActualFlowStorage (settled, ~1-2 day lag)
| Facility | Inventory (PJ) | Working capacity | % full | Net flow (TJ/d) | Days of cover | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iona UGS | 25.4 | 28.0 | 90.9% | ↓ -50.1 | 37.8 | Southern system / VTS |
| Dandenong LNG | 0.6 | 0.7 | 94.8% | → +0.3 | 2.7 | Victoria peaking |
| Newcastle Gas Storage | 1.5 | 1.5 | 98.0% | ↑ +0.8 | 12.2 | NSW peaking |
| Roma Underground (Origin) | 15.7 | 54.0 | 29.0% | ↑ +6.0 | 104.4 | Wallumbilla / SE Qld |
| Silver Springs (QGC) | 9.1 | 45.0 | 20.2% | ↑ +6.5 | 363.1 | Wallumbilla / SE Qld |
| Moomba (Santos) | 6.8 | 70.0 | 9.7% | ↑ +6.0 | 27.2 | Cooper Basin / SA, NSW, QLD |
Net flow positive = injection, negative = withdrawal. Days of cover = (inventory − cushion gas) ÷ max withdrawal rate at operator nameplate peak — the planning-relevant figure for stress events, not current flow. Cushion gas is the minimum physically immobile inventory below which withdrawal stops; Iona's ~6 PJ floor is per the 2023 GSOO (so working gas at full = 18.5 PJ, not 24.5). Other facilities aren't published in the same detail; their cushion is treated as 0 (working = full inventory) until firmer data arrives.
Demand forecast — actual-vs-forecast comparison pending (DWGM int310 / STTM int657)
DWGM (Victoria)
725.4 TJ
Actual: not yet published
Forecast for gas day 2026-05-07 (AEMO int153)
STTM (SYD+BNE+ADL)
432.0 TJ
Actual: not yet published
Scheduled quantity for gas day 2026-05-06 (AEMO int652)
Western Australia gas — gas day 2026-05-03
| Pipeline / facility | Flow / output (TJ/d) | Nameplate | Utilisation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dampier to Bunbury (DBP) | 926.4 | 1066 | 86.9% |
| Varanus Island | 248.6 | — | — |
| Gorgon | 241.3 | — | — |
| Wheatstone | 200.0 | — | — |
| Macedon | 176.3 | — | — |
| Karratha Gas Plant | 90.7 | — | — |
| Beharra Springs | 25.7 | — | — |
| Walyering Production Facility | 15.0 | — | — |
| Pluto | 0.0 | — | — |
| Waitsia Gas Plant | 0.0 | — | — |
| Xyris Production Facility | 0.0 | — | — |
WA GBB API publishes settled actuals; the data above lags by ~2 days. Indicative WA domgas reference price not yet wired.
LNG netback and export parity
Global reference prices
JKM front-month
—
USD/MMBtu
Awaiting paid feed
TTF front-month
—
USD/MMBtu
Awaiting paid feed
Brent front-month
113.89
USD/bbl
Daily, FRED DCOILBRENTEU (~3-7d lag)
Henry Hub front-month
2.72
USD/MMBtu
Daily, FRED DHHNGSP (~3-7d lag)
Netback comparison ($/GJ)
| Series | Current | 7d avg | 30d avg | Spread to STTM Sydney | Spread to Wallumbilla GSH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACCC LNG netback (historical, May 2026) | $23.12 | — | — | — | — |
| STTM Sydney | $8.35 | — | — | +0.00 | +0.30 |
| STTM Brisbane | $8.74 | — | — | +0.39 | +0.69 |
| Wallumbilla GSH | $8.05 | — | — | -0.30 | +0.00 |
ACCC netback is the official monthly historical series. STTM/GSH rows are today's published prices. JKM/TTF cards await a paid feed; "Internal netback" calc deferred until JKM lands.
NEM electricity — dispatch RRP ($/MWh)
| Region | Current RRP | 7d avg | Sparkline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QLD1 | $82.50 | $82.50 | no history yet |
| NSW1 | $81.63 | $81.63 | no history yet |
| VIC1 | $100.25 | $100.25 | no history yet |
| SA1 | $121.21 | $121.21 | no history yet |
| TAS1 | $96.22 | $96.22 | no history yet |
Interconnector flows — as at 2026-05-05 13:50 AEMO
| Interconnector | Direction | Flow (MW) | Limit | Utilisation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QNI AC | ↓ QLD1 → NSW1 | 6 | 1078 | 0.5% |
| Terranora AC | ↑ NSW1 → QLD1 | 9 | 76 | 11.9% |
| VNI AC | ↓ NSW1 → VIC1 | 513 | 513 | 100.0% |
| Heywood AC | ↑ VIC1 → SA1 | 518 | 518 | 100.0% |
| Murraylink DC | ↑ VIC1 → SA1 | 78 | 116 | 67.1% |
| Basslink DC | ↑ TAS1 → VIC1 | 0 | 125 | 0.0% |
From AEMO DispatchIS INTERCONNECTORRES table (5-min). Direction sign comes from the published MWFLOW; the binding limit shown is whichever AEMO is currently enforcing (export when flowing positive, import when flowing negative). Util ≥ 95% highlighted as binding.
Generation mix — NEM-wide capacity factors — gas day 2026-05-04 (most recently published complete day)
| Fuel | Capacity factor | MWh today | Installed (MW) | 7d avg CF | Δ vs 7d avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black coal | 57.5% | 226,361 | 16,405 | — | — |
| Brown coal | 60.7% | 68,335 | 4,690 | — | — |
| Gas | 2.4% | 6,712 | 11,765 | — | — |
| Hydro | 15.3% | 31,810 | 8,666 | — | — |
| Wind | 35.4% | 127,280 | 14,973 | — | — |
| Utility solar | 13.1% | 45,749 | 14,584 | — | — |
| Rooftop solar (estimated) | 3.7% | 21,188 | 24,000 | — | — |
| Battery · throughput 19,807 MWh | 2.9% | 7,894 | 11,193 | — | — |
| Diesel | 0.0% | 0 | 1,024 | — | — |
| Biomass / other | — | 0 | — | — | — |
Forward curves — source: asxenergy.com.au public dataset (delayed ~20 min), Last Update 13:39:27 AEST
Click a row to expand its full curve. Settlement prices via asxenergy.com.au's public futures dataset, delayed ~20 minutes. Personal/internal use only — do not redistribute.
Gas futures ($/GJ)
Victoria Gas Quarterly
| Contract | Last | Settle | Δ | Vol | Open Int |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 GXM2026 | - | 12.20 | - | - | 20 |
| Q3 2026 GXU2026 | - | 11.75 | - | - | 25 |
| Q4 2026 GXZ2026 | - | 11.27 | - | - | 14 |
| Q1 2027 GXH2027 | - | 10.88 | - | - | 40 |
| Q2 2027 GXM2027 | - | 12.45 | - | - | 40 |
| Q3 2027 GXU2027 | - | 12.85 | - | - | 40 |
| Q4 2027 GXZ2027 | - | 11.42 | - | - | 40 |
| Q1 2028 GXH2028 | - | 11.55 | - | - | 2 |
| Q2 2028 GXM2028 | - | 13.01 | - | - | 2 |
| Q3 2028 GXU2028 | - | 13.15 | - | - | 2 |
| Q4 2028 GXZ2028 | - | 11.87 | - | - | 2 |
Victoria Gas Strip
| Contract | Last | Settle | Δ | Vol | Open Int |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIN 2027 GYM2027 | - | 11.59 | - | - | - |
| CAL 2027 GYZ2027 | - | 11.90 | - | - | - |
| FIN 2028 GYM2028 | - | 12.21 | - | - | - |
| CAL 2028 GYZ2028 | - | 12.40 | - | - | - |
Wallumbilla Gas
| Contract | Last | Settle | Δ | Vol | Open Int |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 GZM2026 | - | 11.70 | - | - | 10 |
| Jul 2026 GZN2026 | - | 12.00 | - | - | 10 |
| Aug 2026 GZQ2026 | - | 12.00 | - | - | 10 |
| Sep 2026 GZU2026 | - | 11.60 | - | - | 8 |
| Oct 2026 GZV2026 | - | 12.60 | - | - | 10 |
| Nov 2026 GZX2026 | - | 12.60 | - | - | 10 |
| Dec 2026 GZZ2026 | - | 12.55 | - | - | 10 |
| Jan 2027 GZF2027 | - | 12.10 | - | - | - |
| Feb 2027 GZG2027 | - | 12.10 | - | - | - |
| Mar 2027 GZH2027 | - | 12.10 | - | - | - |
| Apr 2027 GZJ2027 | - | 11.65 | - | - | - |
| May 2027 GZK2027 | - | 11.65 | - | - | - |
| Jun 2027 GZM2027 | - | 11.95 | - | - | - |
| Jul 2027 GZN2027 | - | 11.95 | - | - | - |
| Aug 2027 GZQ2027 | - | 11.95 | - | - | - |
| Sep 2027 GZU2027 | - | 11.75 | - | - | - |
| Oct 2027 GZV2027 | - | 12.30 | - | - | - |
| Nov 2027 GZX2027 | - | 12.30 | - | - | - |
| Dec 2027 GZZ2027 | - | 12.30 | - | - | - |
| Jan 2028 GZF2028 | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Feb 2028 GZG2028 | - | 12.00 | - | - | - |
| Mar 2028 GZH2028 | - | 12.00 | - | - | 2 |
| Apr 2028 GZJ2028 | - | 11.00 | - | - | 4 |
| May 2028 GZK2028 | - | 11.00 | - | - | 2 |
| Jun 2028 GZM2028 | - | 11.50 | - | - | 2 |
| Jul 2028 GZN2028 | - | 11.50 | - | - | 2 |
| Aug 2028 GZQ2028 | - | 11.50 | - | - | 2 |
| Sep 2028 GZU2028 | - | 11.35 | - | - | 2 |
| Oct 2028 GZV2028 | - | 12.15 | - | - | - |
| Nov 2028 GZX2028 | - | 12.15 | - | - | - |
| Dec 2028 GZZ2028 | - | 12.15 | - | - | - |
| Jan 2029 GZF2029 | - | 12.50 | - | - | - |
| Feb 2029 GZG2029 | - | 12.50 | - | - | - |
| Mar 2029 GZH2029 | - | 12.50 | - | - | - |
| Apr 2029 GZJ2029 | - | 12.50 | - | - | - |
| May 2029 GZK2029 | - | 12.50 | - | - | - |
Electricity futures ($/MWh) — Base Quarter + Base Strip only (Caps and Peaks available in cache)
NSW — Base Quarter
| Contract | Last | Settle | Δ | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q226 BNM2026 | 92.00 | 93.50 | -1.50 | 20 |
| Q326 BNU2026 | 99.50 | 100.65 | -1.15 | 33 |
| Q426 BNZ2026 | 90.50 | 91.25 | -0.75 | 17 |
| Q127 BNH2027 | 97.85 | 98.35 | -0.50 | 21 |
| Q227 BNM2027 | 107.40 | 107.75 | -0.35 | 16 |
NSW — Base Strip
| Contract | Last | Settle | Δ | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY27 HNM2027 | 99.30 | 99.48 | -0.18 | 13 |
| CY27 HNZ2027 | 98.82 | 98.82 | - | 1 |
| FY28 HNM2028 | 96.40 | 96.72 | -0.32 | 5 |
| CY28 HNZ2028 | - | 96.48 | - | - |
| FY29 HNM2029 | - | 98.00 | - | - |
VIC — Base Quarter
| Contract | Last | Settle | Δ | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q226 BVM2026 | 71.25 | 72.70 | -1.45 | 15 |
| Q326 BVU2026 | 83.51 | 84.25 | -0.74 | 14 |
| Q426 BVZ2026 | 50.87 | 51.32 | -0.45 | 14 |
| Q127 BVH2027 | 67.40 | 68.00 | -0.60 | 13 |
| Q227 BVM2027 | 92.29 | 93.10 | -0.81 | 23 |
VIC — Base Strip
| Contract | Last | Settle | Δ | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY27 HVM2027 | 73.50 | 74.15 | -0.65 | 5 |
| CY27 HVZ2027 | 73.75 | 74.31 | -0.56 | 3 |
| FY28 HVM2028 | 74.17 | 74.17 | - | 1 |
| CY28 HVZ2028 | - | 77.40 | - | - |
| FY29 HVM2029 | - | 82.05 | - | - |
QLD — Base Quarter
| Contract | Last | Settle | Δ | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q226 BQM2026 | 72.25 | 72.85 | -0.60 | 8 |
| Q326 BQU2026 | 80.25 | 80.75 | -0.50 | 9 |
| Q426 BQZ2026 | - | 78.90 | - | 7 |
| Q127 BQH2027 | 93.25 | 93.81 | -0.56 | 11 |
| Q227 BQM2027 | 84.65 | 85.00 | -0.35 | 11 |
QLD — Base Strip
| Contract | Last | Settle | Δ | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY27 HQM2027 | 84.00 | 84.56 | -0.56 | 7 |
| CY27 HQZ2027 | 83.75 | 84.09 | -0.34 | 2 |
| FY28 HQM2028 | - | 82.12 | - | - |
| CY28 HQZ2028 | - | 80.85 | - | - |
| FY29 HQM2029 | - | 79.96 | - | - |
SA — Base Quarter
| Contract | Last | Settle | Δ | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q226 BSM2026 | - | 101.00 | - | - |
| Q326 BSU2026 | - | 100.30 | - | - |
| Q426 BSZ2026 | - | 58.85 | - | - |
| Q127 BSH2027 | - | 80.06 | - | - |
| Q227 BSM2027 | - | 104.97 | - | - |
SA — Base Strip
| Contract | Last | Settle | Δ | Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY27 HSM2027 | - | 86.02 | - | - |
| CY27 HSZ2027 | - | 86.25 | - | - |
| FY28 HSM2028 | - | 88.61 | - | - |
| CY28 HSZ2028 | 90.25 | 91.02 | -0.77 | 1 |
| FY29 HSM2029 | - | 91.50 | - | - |
Macro context
FX and rates
AUD/USD
0.7208
+0.0017
Daily, RBA F11.1
RBA cash rate target
4.10%
Monthly, RBA F1.1
US 10y Treasury
4.39%
-0.01 pp
Daily, FRED DGS10
Energy equities (ASX-listed, alphabetical) — source: asx.com.au backend (Markit Digital)
| Ticker | Company | Segment | Last ($) | Δ today (%) | Market cap ($bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEL | Amplitude Energy | Upstream gas (formerly Cooper Energy) | 1.69 | -0.30% | 0.5 |
| AGL | AGL Energy | Electricity / gas retail + generation | 9.37 | -0.21% | 6.3 |
| ALD | Ampol | Fuels (refining + retail) | 35.61 | +0.94% | 8.4 |
| APA | APA Group | Gas pipelines + electricity transmission | 10.43 | +0.10% | 13.8 |
| BPT | Beach Energy | Upstream gas / oil | 1.17 | +1.97% | 2.6 |
| KAR | Karoon Energy | Upstream oil | 2.15 | +3.12% | 1.5 |
| NHC | New Hope Corporation | Coal | 5.54 | +0.54% | 4.7 |
| ORG | Origin Energy | Electricity / gas retail + APLNG stake | 11.88 | +0.38% | 20.4 |
| SMR | Stanmore Resources | Coal | 2.31 | +0.66% | 2.1 |
| STO | Santos | Upstream gas / LNG | 7.96 | +0.57% | 25.7 |
| STX | Strike Energy | Upstream gas | 0.12 | -4.17% | 0.4 |
| VEA | Viva Energy | Fuels (refining + retail) | 2.49 | +2.89% | 4.0 |
| WDS | Woodside Energy | LNG / oil | 32.80 | +2.16% | 61.0 |
| WHC | Whitehaven Coal | Coal | 8.59 | +1.00% | 7.0 |
| YAL | Yancoal Australia | Coal | 7.40 | -0.87% | 9.8 |